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MUSKOKA VIEW ON REAL ESTATE- BY JIM PATTINSON
MUSKOKA VIEW ON REAL ESTATE- BY JIM PATTINSON
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02/24/2012 11:29 AM
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CANADA'S HOUSING MARKET 2012
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Canadian housing market outlook stable: CMHC OTTAWA - Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is predicting the Canadian housing market will remain fairly stable this year and next, with little change from 2011 in prices, new home construction and sales of existing homes.
The national housing agency said Monday in its first-quarter 2012 report that the foreseen stability stems from an economy that appears set to expand at only a moderate pace over the next two years. The Bank of Canada's key overnight rate — which affects mortgages tied to prime rates — will likely remain low until mid-2013, which should also act to keep activity on an even keel.
"With the Canadian economy set to expand at a moderate pace and mortgage rates expected to remain low, activity levels in 2012 in both new home construction and sales of existing homes will stay close to levels seen in 2011," CMHC deputy economist Mathieu Laberge said in a statement.
Low mortgage rates and high demand have driven housing prices sharply higher in large urban centres such as Toronto and Vancouver, leading many experts to warn that a housing bubble could burst when rates finally do rise.
Despite those warnings and alarms from top government officials that Canadians are taking on too much debt overall, the housing market has seen little change over the past few years, with price growth slowing but not retreating in most areas.
The CMHC says it expects the average house price in Canada to hit $368,900 for 2012, with a projected range between $330,000 and $410,000, according to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association's MLS service.
For 2013, that number rises to $379,000, with a range between $335,000 and $430,000.
"The moderate increases in the average MLS price are consistent with the balanced market conditions that occurred in 2011, and that are expected to continue in 2012 and 2013," CMHC said.
Housing starts are expected to be around 190,000 units this year and 193,800 units in 2013, while existing home sales are expected at about 457,300 units in 2012 and moving a little higher to 468,200 units in 2013.
The CMHC predicted that housing starts will be in the range of 164,000 to 212,700 units in 2012, and between 168,900 to 219,300 units in 2013. Existing home sales are expected in a range from 406,000 to 504,500 units in 2012, rising to 417,600 to 517,400 units in 2013.
Western Canada is expected to see strong growth in new housing starts, with Alberta leading the way with a 13.2 per cent increase. However, the agency said it expects housing starts in Saskatchewan to contract by about 2.7 per cent in 2013.
In Eastern Canada, all provinces are expected to see a contraction in housing starts for 2012, with "modest growth" returning to Quebec and Ontario in 2013.
The agency noted that the fate of an economic recovery in the United States, Canada's largest single trading partner, could have an immediate affect on Canada's housing industry —
"Some upsides include the potential that the U.S. could recover more quickly than anticipated, which would be positive for U.S. employment and economic growth," CMHC said.
"In turn, this could boost employment growth in Canada and thus lead to a stronger than expected housing market."
Conversely, if the U.S. recovery hits a snag and emerging economies see their growth slow while Europe suffers a slowdown, that could lead to slower employment growth in Canada and place a chilling effect on the demand for housing.
Canadian home sales pull back in January According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national resale housing activity retreated in January 2012 from the strong finish reported for December 2011.
Highlights:
- Home sales were down 4.5% from December to January.
- Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 4.0% above levels in January 2011, and stood even with the 5 and 10 year averages for January sales.
- The number of newly listed homes edged down 1.4% from December to January.
- With sales down by more than new listings, the national market shifted further into balanced territory.
- The national average home price was up less than 2% year-over-year in January, ranking it among the smallest increases of the past year.
Sales activity recorded through the MLS® Systems of real estate Boards and Associations in Canada fell 4.5 per cent from December 2011 to January 2012. This marks the first monthly decline in national activity since August 2011 and the biggest monthly decline since July 2010. The monthly decline reversed a string of monthly increases over the closing months of last year, and returned national activity to where it stood at the end of the third quarter of 2011.
“The national housing market is stabilizing and remains well balanced,” said Gary Morse, CREA’s President. “That said, forecasts for economic and job growth going forward vary widely for different parts of the country, suggesting a possible continuation of a softening trend in some markets, as well as the potential that demand will pick up based on strong fundamentals in others. All real estate is local, so talk to your local REALTOR® to understand how price trends in your neighbourhood are shaping up.”
Activity was down in over half of all local markets in January from the previous month. Led by declines in Greater Toronto and Montréal, demand also softened in a number of other major urban centres including the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, and Greater Vancouver.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity was up four per cent from year-ago levels in January, the smallest year-over-year increase since last May. As was the case in a number of months last year, actual sales in January 2012 stood close to the five and ten year average for the month.
The number of newly listed homes edged down 1.4 per cent on a month-over-month basis in January following a 2.9 per cent increase in December. The monthly decline in new supply reflects a drop in new listings in a number of Canada’s largest urban centres, which offset a jump in new listings in Vancouver.
Sales fell in January shifting the national market back towards the mid-point of balanced territory and reversing the recent trend which had seen the market becoming tighter over the final four months of 2011. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 53.8 per cent in January, down from 55.5 per cent in December and 55.4 per cent in November.
Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 per cent, 60 per cent of local markets were balanced in January. Compared to December, there were fewer buyers’ and sellers’ markets, and a greater number of balanced markets.
The number of months of inventory stood at six months at the end of January on a national basis, up from 5.7 months in December 2011 and returning it to where it stood in October 2011. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in January 2012 was $348,178, representing an increase of 1.2 per cent from its year-ago level. This ranks among the smallest increases since late 2010.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national average home price rose 1.6 per cent on a month-over-month basis, marking a rebound from a decline of similar magnitude in December. This pattern mirrors the one playing out in the newly-launched MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), published on February 6.
“Year-over-year comparisons in the national average price are expected to become volatile and may turn negative, reflecting average price developments in the first half of 2011 in Vancouver,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “At that time, high-end home sales in Vancouver’s priciest neighbourhoods surged to all-time record levels, which skewed the national average price upward considerably. A replay of this phenomenon is not expected this year. As a result, comparisons for national average price to year-ago levels over the coming months will reflect an upwardly skewed base effect. For this reason, year-over-year comparisons should be kept in perspective. Developments in the MLS® HPI will provide important guidance on price trends, since it is not affected by the problem of compositional shifts in the mix of sales activity.”
The MLS® HPI also takes into account the contributions toward the price of a home made by a broad range of quantitative and qualitative housing features, allowing it to track Canadian home price trends better than any other measure.
PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.
CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas.
Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.
MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.
Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/media.htm.
It will be tougher to get a mortgage in future, survey of economists predicts The federal government will make it tougher for many homebuyers to get mortgages this year as it grapples with an overheated property market, according to analysts in a Reuters poll, who also ruled out the prospect that prices could suddenly crash.
Ten of 14 economists and strategists surveyed last week in Reuters' first poll on the Canadian housing sector answered "yes" when asked if they thought Ottawa would tighten mortgage rules within the next 12 months.
They expect home prices to climb just 0.1 per cent in the year to December 2012, and the same in 2013. That is down from a 0.9-per-cent year-on-year increase in December 2011.
If Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tightens requirements for government-backed insured mortgages it would be his fourth intervention in the real estate market since 2008.
Flaherty could raise the minimum down-payment to buy a home from the current 5 per cent or reduce the maximum amortization period from 30 years.
Any move would likely come before the prime spring real estate season, analysts said. "Sometime between now and the next budget," said Benoit Durocher, senior economist at Desjardins in Montreal, on the timing of such a move.
Average Canadian's consumer debt hits $25,960 The average consumer's debt load climbed to a record high $25,960 at the end of 2011, although annual data from a credit bureau report released today suggests that the Canadian love affair with debt is waning.
Consumer debt, which excludes mortgages, edged 1.4 per cent higher in the fourth quarter of 2011 from the previous quarter, according to a report released by TransUnion.
The increase comes on the heels of three quarters of flat-to-negative growth but is in line with a year-end spike that generally comes during the holiday shopping season, said Thomas Higgins, TransUnion's vice-president of analytics and decision services.
He believes the “continued deceleration in the annual growth of overall debt levels” is the more interesting - and hopefully promising - trend.
The report showed that annual growth in consumer debt fell below 1 per cent for the first time since TransUnion began tracking credit trends at the start of 2004. The current trend of slowing consumer debt growth began in late 2009.
That basically means that while debt levels are still growing, the pace of growth has slowed drastically.
“The first and second quarters of 2012 should be quite revealing as we may see the first year-over-year decline in total debt since at least 2004,” Mr. Higgins said.
He attributed the increased caution among consumers to the uncertain economic outlook, debt problems in Greece, as well as the warnings issued by Canadian policy makers.
“All of this has really helped to get people focused on debt and trying to get it down before interest rates start to rise,” he said.
Debt levels among Canadian households have soared to new highs in recent years, with people turning to credit to finance purchases of cars and home renovations.
Central bankers have been warning Canadians about excessive debt loads and their ability to repay the money they owe once interest rates rise from their current lows.
Lines of credit are by far the biggest source of non-mortgage debt among Canadians, accounting for 42 per cent of the overall debt pie. This type of debt, which is cheaper than credit card debt, continues to grow although at a slower pace, Mr. Higgins noted.
Other key credit statistics listed in the TransUnion report include:
- Canadian average credit-card borrower debt declined 1.49 per cent on an annual basis but rose 0.61 per cent quarter over quarter
- Canadian lines of credit (LOC) borrower debt increased 1.1 per cent year-over-year and 0.64 per cent from the previous quarter
- Canadian installment-loan borrower debt fell 5.3 per cent year over year and 2.58 per cent quarter over quarter
- Canadian auto borrower debt jumped 9.7 per cent year over year and 2.8 per cent from the previous quarter
The data released by TransUnion also shows that while debt levels are high, most Canadians are still able to meet their debt repayment obligations.
Delinquency levels remain low across all major product categories, the report said, with delinquencies on lines of credit sitting at 0.21 per cent and for credit cards at 0.31 per cent.
The TransUnion analysis is based on anonymous credit files of all credit-active Canadians.
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01/28/2012 11:46 AM
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ORGANIZE YOUR SPACE -- EASY TIPS
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How much time do you spend searching for your car keys, a bill or yours shoes? For many of us, this is a weekly, if not daily, occurrence. Although our homes have gotten bigger over the last few decades, we still seem to run out of space quickly. As we accumulate more and more stuff that we may or may not love or use often , it becomes difficult to find the items we really need. Take the headache out of organizing with these tips.
GIVE EACH ITEM A HOME. Everything you own should have its place, whether it's on a particular shelf or in a drawer or basket. It may be easier to use the place where the item most often ends up as its official home. Let everyone in your home know where the item belongs, so no one has to hunt for it.
INVEST IN DUAL-FUNCTION FURNITURE. Maximize your space with furniture that has built -storage or shelving.
GET SUPPORT. Improve the chances that your spouse and child(ren) will maintain the new system, and enlist their help in creating it. Seek their help to create systems that work with their habits and personalities.
BE PICKY. When you are cleaning, keep in mind: if you don't love it and it's not useful, get rid of it. Toss incomplete appliances (e.g., blenders or crock pots without lids) and plastic storage containers without lids or that are warped beyond use. When buying things, ask: Where can I put this? What will I do with It? What will it replace?
ORGANIZING TAKES TIME. It's safe to assume that it will take twice as long as you initially estimate, especially if you are sorting sentimental items. Resist the urge to become attached to objects. You can still have memories without having the actual object.
NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF PRETTY BOXES. You are more likely to stick to your new system and stay organized if you like the storage unit.
80% of Canadians consider themselves disorgainzed. ( Source Leger Marketing November 2009 for Professional Organizers in Canada )
ORGANIZING BY ROOM. Home Office/Den; Kitchen: Garage/Attic/Basement and The Closet.
TOP 5 REASONS HOMEOWNERS HIRE PROFESSIONAL ORGAINIZERS:
1. Too much clutter
2. General disorganization
3. Difficulty determining what to keep and /or discard
4. Difficulty finding things
5. Selling a home or moving
FOLLOW THESE FEW SUGGESTIONS AND TAKE SOME OF THAT STRESS OUT OF YOUR FAMILY LIFE.
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01/12/2012 02:20 PM
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PREPARE YOUR HOME TO BE SOLD IN FIVE EASY STEPS
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UPDATE THE MOST VISIBLE AREAS like your kitchen, bathroom and other common gathering rooms but don't forget your front and back yards. Prime time home buying coincides with spring and summer. Home curb appeal can make all the differeince; create an amazing first impression.
1. DECORATIVE WOOD MOULDING is like icing on the cake. It is amazing the difference a little bit of decorative wood moulding can make. Frame out a picture window, add deep crown moulding to a high ceiling, or place simple chair rail in a guest bathroom. These small extras can change the entire look of a room.
2. YOUR FRONT PORCH should be in perfect shape; it is the first thing a potential buyer sees. Clear the clutter, add some colourful flower pots, and arrange a couple of comfortable chairs. You want your porch to signal the start of something wonderful!
3. DO NOT NEGLECT THE BACK YARD! Those outdoor living spaces grow in popularity each and every year. Impress potential homebuyers with a backyard to die for! Overflow the garden flower boxes, some nice outdoor furniture, a gazebo a new deck. Dress up the back yard!
4. FLOOR THEM! Nothing says "WELCOME HOME" like the feel of smooth real wood floors. Easily installed and completely affordable, wood floors enhance any decorating style and evoke immediate "ahhhhs."
5. ADD A VISUAL SURPRISE! Find something cool to add to a room in your home, a little visual pop no one will expect. Add bead board panels to the kitchen island and complete with a funky design.
Choose natural building products, those that truly fit the definition of "GREEN" and buy "SUSTAINABLE".
Your comments are always welcome.
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09/22/2010 03:45 PM
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MORE FALL TIPS
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CHECK THE SUMP PUMP AND LINE TO ENSURE PROPER OPERATION.
ENSURE WINDOWS AND SKYLIGHTS CLOSE TIGHTLY; REPAIR OR REPLACE.
ENSURE ALL DOORS TO THE OUTSIDE SHUT TIGHTLY, AND CHECK OTHER DOORS FOR EASE O USE.
REPLACE ALL WEATHER STIPPING IF REQUIRED.
COVER OUTSIDE AIR-CONDITIONING UNITS AND SHUT OFF POWER.
ALWAYS BE AWARE OF THE WEATHER CHANGES.
DON'T FORGET TO PULL YOUR BATTERY ON THE MOTOR CYCLE AND SERVICE BEFORE SAYING GOOD BYE FOR THE WINTER.
THANKS JIM
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09/15/2010 01:45 PM
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SEARCHING FOR A COTTAGE
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CHECK US OUT AT http://www.enjoymuskoka.com/
WE SERVICE ALL THE LAKES
DON'T LET THE PRICES CONFUSE YOU CALL FOR ADVICE
FEEL GOOD ABOUT YOUR SEARCH AND MAKE IT FUN, FUN,FUN
LET US HELP YOU MAKE THE BIGGEST DECISION OF YOUR LIFE
THANKS
JIM
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09/09/2010 05:19 PM
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THE BIGGEST INVESTMENT OF YOUR LIFE
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FALL AND WINTER TO DO LIST
If you have central air conditioning, make sure the drain pan under the cooling coil mounted in the furnace plenum is draining properly and is clean.
Vacuum electric baseboard heaters to remove dust.
Be sure you chimney is clean and ready for another burn season.
Make sure you complete your Fall smoke detector test!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good idea to protect your garden lights by covering or removing.
Bathroom vent pipes may require extenisions so that snow does not cover them.
Change all the filters for your furnace.
I will send a few a day so as not to overburden the to do list.
Thanks
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Jim Pattinson
Sales Representative/Co-Owner
PH:
705•687-5656
CL:
705•641-1165 |
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About Me
“Buying or
selling”
Happiness is
not
something
you
experience,
it is
something
you
remember. I
am committed
to providing
you and
those you
refer, with
the quality
of service
that makes
home buying
or selling a
great
experience.
You need not
be referred,
but will be
served so
well, that
you will
want to
refer
others.
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